The traditional retirement portfolio of stocks and bonds is down 20% for only the fourth time since WWII – CNBC
Posted: March 31, 2020 at 8:45 am
The coronavirus crisis has punished the blameless across the world this year. That includes investors who did the supposed "right thing," by keeping a balanced portfolio to fund long-term gains, just as the experts advise.
As the stock-market cascaded to its recent lows this month, the traditional portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds suffered a greater than 20% decline from its peak value, for only the fourth time since World War II.
At last Monday's low, this standard retirement allocation, as represented by the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, was 22% off its peak Feb. 19 value driven mostly of course by the 30% tumble in equity indexes that bonds only partially buffered. In fact, near the worst of the stock sell-off bonds were not offsetting the losses by rallying, as everything but cash was liquidated.
Upon request, Ritholtz Wealth Management research director Michael Batnick went back in history to track each time the 60/40 portfolio had taken at least a 20% hit. Such a decline struck initially at only the following points since 1945 (using month-end data for 60% S&P 500 and 40% five-year Treasuries): August 1974, September 2002 and January 2009.
The fact that the 60/40 autopilot approach has only retreated by 20% on a monthly basis four times in 75 years is itself a testament to the smoothing effects of offsetting equity-fixed income interplay.
What happened next after the prior 20% setbacks? Those months were all within months of the trough of major bear markets, though in each case the ultimate low for the stock indexes was still to come.
Batnick calculates that in those three instances in 1974, 2002 and 2009, it took between 10 and 20 months for this portfolio to recover back to its peak level.
An investor who kept to the disciplined approach and rebalanced holdings back to the 60/40 asset split at the end of the month when a 20% decline was first registered would have been positioned for attractive returns in subsequent years.
In those three instances, the average annual total return from the 60/40 portfolio was close to 12% over the following five years. That's a healthy advantage over the very long-term average yearly return of around 9% for this asset allocation.
This is perhaps comforting, if not terribly surprising. Any investment discipline that triggers a move to take advantage of steep underperformance in one asset classes tends to be rewarded over time. And rebalancing after big declines in a blended-asset portfolio has generally been about buying nasty breaks in stock indexes.
On a more opportunistic, shorter-term basis, strategist Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence last week noted that simply buying the S&P 500 the last three times it's dropped 25% from a peak (1987, 2001 and 2008), as it did this month, has always led to positive returns over the next year even though in none of those instances did the minus-25% level represent the ultimate low for stocks. Those returns one year out were 20% after 1987, 2.5% after 2001 and 18% after 2008.
Are there reasons to be skeptical that holding fast to the 60/40 stance this time will not fare as well as in past decades? Some investment professionals have discussed for some time that the essential premise of the 60/40 mix has been challenged due to extremely low bond yields that leave far less room for bonds to appreciate in an economic slowdown or crisis, mitigating their value as ballast to stocks.
Goldman Sachs strategists last week sounded a cautious note on this front last week with regard to the present market skid. "In addition to the sharper-than-normal equity correction, diversication in 60/40 portfolios has been less good," the firm said. "With bond yields at all-time lows now and close to the effective lower bound, there is little space for most [developed-market] bonds to buffer equity drawdowns."
Stretching deeper into history, skeptics might note the 60/40 portfolio carried a 20% loss for longer stretches in the 1930s, when stocks stayed deep underwater during the entire Great Depression.
So perhaps the traditional asset mix will get less help over time from bond yields squeezing lower in tough times (barring a move to negative yields, which would create a whole other set of issues). Still, bonds can still serve the role as cushion against equity losses.
The entire issue of rebalancing is hardly just an academic issue. The impulse from pension funds and automated asset-allocation vehicles to shift hundreds of billions in assets from fixed-income to stocks was detailed by strategists across Wall Street and was at least one significant driver of the surge in the S&P 500 into Thursday's close.
The S&P 500 at its low point last week was underperforming the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index by some 30 percentage points year to date. Bespoke Investment Group notes that this effectively turned a 60/40 portfolio into a 55/45 mix, requiring one of the bigger rebalancing moves in years.
Of course, to the extent that this mechanical reallocation is timed to the quarter's end, it means one short-term tailwind for the rebound rally has just about abated, as the market bounce leaves the indexes less stretched and investors have celebrated fresh trillions of dollars in support from the Federal Reserve and Congress.
Strategist Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity, who's been waiting for a retest of last week's low to get more aggressively positioned, noted Friday, "Over coming days, the market will not be as oversold, the pension rebalancing will be done, and the bulk of monetary and fiscal stimulus will have been announced."
While those factors could present a test of the immediate resilience of the market's attempted comeback, they don't much alter the case for long-term investors to take what the market has served up with its swift retrenchment this month.
Read the original post:
The traditional retirement portfolio of stocks and bonds is down 20% for only the fourth time since WWII - CNBC
- Pope OK's Indy archbishop's retirement [Last Updated On: September 22nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 22nd, 2011]
- Shoaib Akhtar announces retirement [Last Updated On: September 23rd, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 23rd, 2011]
- William Regal Announces his retirement [Last Updated On: September 23rd, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 23rd, 2011]
- Shaq Announces Retirement, Will Miss Free Throws [Last Updated On: September 24th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 24th, 2011]
- Elena Dementieva Announces Career Retirement [Last Updated On: September 24th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 24th, 2011]
- 1st and 10 discuss Randy Moss retirement and legacy [Last Updated On: September 24th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 24th, 2011]
- American Retirement - French and Saunders [Last Updated On: September 25th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 25th, 2011]
- Planning Your Retirement [Last Updated On: September 25th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 25th, 2011]
- Shaquille O'Neal Retirement Press Conference (6/3/11) [Last Updated On: September 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 26th, 2011]
- Shahid Afridi Announced His Retirement [Last Updated On: September 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 26th, 2011]
- NHL: Mike Modano Announces Retirement [Last Updated On: September 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 26th, 2011]
- REALIST NEWS - Pentagon to cut veteran retirement program? [Last Updated On: September 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 26th, 2011]
- Joe Montana Retirement [Last Updated On: September 28th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 28th, 2011]
- Fire Chief Rick Lasky's Retirement Video - City Of Lewisville [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2011]
- Bob's retirement celebration [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2011] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2011]
- Smackdown vs Raw 2011 - Edge Retirement Tribute [Last Updated On: October 1st, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 1st, 2011]
- ★ Assassins Creed Revelations - Original Music "Assassin's Retirement Home" ft. TGG - TGN [Last Updated On: October 2nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 2nd, 2011]
- Ronaldo's Goodbye Part 1 - Retirement Announcement (with English subtitles) [Last Updated On: October 4th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 4th, 2011]
- West Palm Beach Police Chief Announces Retirement [Last Updated On: October 5th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 5th, 2011]
- Ben Stein Talks Retirement -- Part 1 [Last Updated On: October 6th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 6th, 2011]
- Old Age Perils: Retirement made bleak in UK by rising costs [Last Updated On: October 6th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 6th, 2011]
- Edge discusses retirement two weeks before being forced to retire [Last Updated On: October 7th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 7th, 2011]
- Shaquille O'Neal Retirement Mix (All Of The Lights) [Last Updated On: October 8th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 8th, 2011]
- Stock market impact on retirement [Last Updated On: October 9th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 9th, 2011]
- Retirement Jock Jeff Thompson-Estate Planning Life Insurance Strategies [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2011]
- Baby Boomers Retiring in Texas [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2011]
- Hulk Hogan Announces His Retirement From Wrestling [Last Updated On: October 12th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2011]
- First Draft of Yao Ming's Retirement Speech [Last Updated On: October 13th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 13th, 2011]
- Uncut: Shaq Retires - Video [Last Updated On: October 16th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2011]
- Farewell Discovery: Space shuttle's last landing before retirement - Video [Last Updated On: October 16th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2011]
- Yao Ming Retirement Speech (FULL) - Video [Last Updated On: October 17th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 17th, 2011]
- Shaquille O'Neal Retirement Press Conference 6/3/11 - Video [Last Updated On: October 18th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2011]
- Tyler Seguin - Harvard Lampoon retirement skit - Video [Last Updated On: October 19th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 19th, 2011]
- iPHONING MY WAY TO RETIREMENT $.70 AT A TIME by Eugene Lin, Ep 44 - Video [Last Updated On: October 19th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 19th, 2011]
- Dilbert Animated Cartoons - Confidential Information, Retirement Planning and Visionary Leadership - Video [Last Updated On: October 22nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 22nd, 2011]
- Steve McNair Retirement Speech - Video [Last Updated On: October 23rd, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 23rd, 2011]
- Mark Recchi announces retirement after Cup win 6/15/11 - Video [Last Updated On: October 25th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 25th, 2011]
- Tax-Saving Tips - Retirement Savings - Video [Last Updated On: October 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 26th, 2011]
- When elephants retire - Video [Last Updated On: October 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 26th, 2011]
- BayPort Credit Union: Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: October 28th, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 28th, 2011]
- Randy Couture Talks Machida Kick, Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2011]
- Raw: Edge reveals that he must retire from competition - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2011] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2011]
- Shaquille O'Neal Boston Celtics Highlight Reel (Retirement Mix) - Video [Last Updated On: November 2nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 2nd, 2011]
- Social Security vs. Private Retirement Accounts - Video [Last Updated On: November 3rd, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 3rd, 2011]
- Roy Nelson on Retiring Cro Cop at UFC 137, Eating Well + Steven Seagal Movies - Video [Last Updated On: November 6th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 6th, 2011]
- FedEx Express Ad: Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: November 6th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 6th, 2011]
- Mirko Cro Cop Talks Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: November 7th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 7th, 2011]
- MLB - Tony La Russa Announces Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2011]
- Make your retirement fund recession-proof - Video [Last Updated On: November 10th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 10th, 2011]
- Curtis Joseph Retirement Press Conference - Video [Last Updated On: November 13th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 13th, 2011]
- Joe Paterno Retirement -- Is it Fair? -- UPDATE: Paterno FIRED - Video [Last Updated On: November 15th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 15th, 2011]
- Finance Friday: How to Protect Your Retirement Date from a Market Decline - Video [Last Updated On: November 19th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 19th, 2011]
- Best Of Shaq - Retirement Press Conference - Video [Last Updated On: November 19th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 19th, 2011]
- Lampard and Becks on why Heskey's retirement is great news! - Video [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2011]
- Brad Pitt interview: Retirement is on the way - Video [Last Updated On: November 22nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 22nd, 2011]
- Bill Gates' spoof retirement video - Video [Last Updated On: November 22nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 22nd, 2011]
- Retirement village purchase arrangements.m4v - Video [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2011]
- What is a retirement village? - Video [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2011]
- Retired CIA Officer Ray McGovern: Israel - The Elephant in The Room 1/3 - Video [Last Updated On: November 27th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 27th, 2011]
- UNCUT: Frank Retirement News Conference - Video [Last Updated On: November 29th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 29th, 2011]
- Retirement - Kaiser Chiefs - Video [Last Updated On: November 29th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 29th, 2011]
- Peter Forsberg Jersey Retirement - Full Ceremony - HD [Part 2/3] - Video [Last Updated On: November 30th, 2011] [Originally Added On: November 30th, 2011]
- Alonzo Mourning Gets #33 Retired in Miami - Video [Last Updated On: December 1st, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2011]
- Hulk Hogan's Retirement Takes A Shocking Turn - Video [Last Updated On: December 2nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 2nd, 2011]
- NewsRadio - Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: December 3rd, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 3rd, 2011]
- Frank's Retirement Flight in HD - Video [Last Updated On: December 4th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 4th, 2011]
- NBA 2K12 My Player Retired - Video [Last Updated On: December 9th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 9th, 2011]
- What Financial Firms don't Get About Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2011]
- Minecraft Tutorials - Tutorial World "Retirement Tour" - Video [Last Updated On: December 12th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 12th, 2011]
- Retirement in Ecuador - Video [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2011]
- UFC 135: Matt Hughes on Retirement + Koscheck (Pre-Fight Intv w/ Workout) - Video [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2011]
- A retiring professor - Video [Last Updated On: December 15th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 15th, 2011]
- Shaq's Retirement Speech -Funny- - Video [Last Updated On: December 19th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 19th, 2011]
- Recession snatches retirement from America's workers - Video [Last Updated On: December 22nd, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 22nd, 2011]
- 5 Forbes Tips On How To Make Money During Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2011]
- Forrest Griffin Interview: Tito Ortiz, Ultimate Fighter, Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2011]
- Expert Investors On Saving For Retirement (Intelligent Investing With Steve Forbes) - Video [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2011]
- BJ Penn on Diaz v. GSP, Retirement- INSIDE MMA Exclusive - Video [Last Updated On: December 29th, 2011] [Originally Added On: December 29th, 2011]
- Miyamoto's "Retirement", Kingdoms of Amalur Impressions, and Chrome Gaming! - Video [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2012] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2012]
- SHAQ Announces Retirement - Video [Last Updated On: January 3rd, 2012] [Originally Added On: January 3rd, 2012]