Hedge Your Retirement Portfolio With International Income Stocks, Whether Or Not A Recession Occurs – Seeking Alpha
Posted: January 28, 2020 at 8:48 pm
The markets have been continuously rising on a euphoric atmosphere, with relatively minimum volatility and lack of significant concerns, as corporate earnings keep hitting record highs. At this point, everyone has different types of concerns, but especially retirees or soon-to-be-retired investors face two significant disturbances:
These are natural concerns that make sense to have. Just remember those who were planning to retire around 2007-2008. Now let me make this clear, am I predicting a recession? No. My humble opinion is that we are not going to see one anytime soon. However, the combination of concerns amongst retail investors, along with how cheap equities have been international, provides an excellent opportunity to consider hedging with international stocks. The reason I think international stocks are an attractive play at this time are:
The graph below illustrates the collective earnings of the underlying S&P 500 components against the Index itself. As you can see, after the great recession, corporate earnings exceeded the Index's growth just until the last presidential election. Tax cuts, deregulation, and a robust economic environment have been pushing earnings higher, and the Index follows the trend closely. The question is, for how long can this go on?
Source: Macrotrends
The only correct answer is: nobody knows. However, what is most accepted is that, at the moment, the risk/reward factor is not favorable towards more upside. Markets take occasional breathers, reallocation of funds, and profit-taking. One thing is for sure, though. The U.S. stocks are not priced attractively for retirees and income-oriented investors. The graph below illustrates the S&P 500's (SPY) (VOO) dividend yield over the past five years, currently being ~1.81%. This is a strong indication, confirming that the overall dividend growth in the market fails to keep up with price appreciation, causing the yield to be going down. Tech stocks taking over the Index is another significant factor.
Source: Quandl
Finally, consider, for example, the utility sector. The area has been historically a go-to retirement pick, because of its low volatility, high dividend electricity, and energy providers. Even Utilities (XLU)(VPU) have now become the most expensive they have ever been, with a current sector P/E of 26.33.
Source: GuruFocus.com
Overall, I believe it is fair to say that whether a recession occurs or not during the foreseeable future, U.S. equities are pricey, and juicy dividend yields are hard to find. The solution? Go international!
Below I am going to list a few international stocks by region, which I believe are fantastic picks for retirees and income-oriented investors. Each of these stocks deserves a stand-alone article, but for now, let's focus on the general concept.
British stocks have historically been much cheaper than the U.S. ones. The main reason being they mostly trade on fundamentals and not on revenue. The British indexes are mostly comprised of energy, industrial, consumer staples, and financials. These securities carry lower multiples than tech stock, which the U.K. entirely lacks.
Below, the graph illustrates the P/E ratio of the FTSE All-Share Index, which is currently slightly above 15, much lower than the U.S. markets.How to play the United Kingdom:
I believe that a viable option is buying an ETF that follows the Index itself. The Index alone currently yields around 4.53%, which is a fair yield for income. However, the best option, in my opinion, is buying the City of London Investment Trust (OTCPK:CLIUF), trading at the London Stock Exchange.
The City of London Investment Trust invests mainly in U.K. equities with a bias towards large, multinational companies. The trust also invests in U.S. equities. What makes the trust special, however, is its outstanding track record of 52 consecutive annual dividend increases. Yeah, you heard it right. The U.K. has its fair share of dividend aristocrats. The trust calls itself a "dividend hero," which sounds right.
Below, you can see some of its top holdings, which are mostly British behemoths with fat dividend yields. The trust itself yields ~4.31%.
Source: The trust
What makes the trust attractive for me is that its historical dividend approach allows for a safe income haven. It's fair to say that increasing the dividend for 52 consecutive years, has proven that no recession can take down the trust's excellent management team. I believe that the trust offers U.S. (and non-U.S.) investors exposure to a conservative market with elephant-sized companies while taking away the risk of potential dividend cuts, because of its excellent cash reserves and optimal diversification.
Lately, I have been increasingly interested in Asian stocks. While I have had some unfortunate personal experiences with Chinese tech stocks (looking at Baidu (BIDU)), I have also been impressed by the variety of REITs and Trusts, that the Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges provide access to. I believe that many investors undermine the credibility and governance of such trusts, thinking they are inferior to American ones, but this is entirely wrong.
Again Singapore-based stocks, for example, trade at much lower multiples. The P/E ratio of the overall Index is currently just under 14.
I agree that American stocks are the most shareholder-oriented assets an investor can and should own. However, there are some options out there that have outperformed the market while paying significant dividends with annual-increase policies too.
A few of my favorite trusts are those of the Mapletree family:
The trusts own and operate a variety of properties based on their corresponding name. I wrote an extensive article a few months ago regarding the Commercial Trust, which you can read here. Its properties house some of the most respected names like the Bank of America Merrill Lynch HQ.
Source: Business Insider
All four trusts have had a significant capital gains record, yielding from around 3% (the higher growth commercial one) to ~6.3% (the more conservative retail one).
It is important to know that all these trusts have been increasing their dividends annually and are exposed to minimum volatility, mostly because of their significant diversification and the less volatile real estate market. Singapore-based REITs like these are, like the American ones, required to distribute 90% of their rental income back to shareholders. While it is impossible to analyze all four trusts in this article, I believe that my last article on commercial trust is a good starting point if you are interested in the Asian REITs.
Fellow Seeking Alpha writer The Value Pendulum has done a fantastic job with three articles on the trusts which I link below.
Some other REITs that I believe worth checking out and will hopefully cover in the future individually are:
Finally, regarding Europe, there are a few bargains out there, but I really want to highlight Eurocommercial Properties (OTC:EUCMF). The Investment Doctor has covered the REIT extensively. You can find his latest article on it here.
The REIT is special for me for a single reason. It is a dividend aristocrat, despite being a retail mall-focused REIT. Eurocommercial Properties kept increasing its sweet dividend, even through the great recession. Only a handful or less U.S. REITs can boast that feat. Management has over 20 years of experience working together, and that shows on such excellent capital control.
The trust currently yields 9.25%, which is extremely attractive. Investors can take advantage of this opportunity, which has been given as a result of the Mall-apocalypse. Moreover, I consider the Eurocommercial to be a bargain stock since it is trading way below its NAV, as you can see below.
Source: Eurocommercial Properties
I believe that the REIT is an excellent European play with a proven track record of delivering superior income distributions to its unit holders.
Is a recession coming? Nobody knows. I think that the market has more room to run, considering such an excellent economic environment. However, it doesn't hurt to consider additional options apart from U.S. equities. The U.K., Hong-Kong, Singapore, and Europe have some of the most attractive equities to consider right now, that are trading at a reasonable valuation. The stocks mentioned in this article are some fruitful options to consider if you are a retiree or soon-to-retire investor who considers alternative income solutions.
One last thing that all investors deploying funds in foreign equities must remember is the FX risk they are exposing themselves to. I will try to cover more of these stocks individually in the future. Just remember, as much shareholder-friendly as the U.S. is, there are always other options to consider too, during pricey times.
Disclosure: I am/we are long ALL EQUITIES MENTIONED. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Hedge Your Retirement Portfolio With International Income Stocks, Whether Or Not A Recession Occurs - Seeking Alpha
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