Road to the White House: Santorum success forces Dems to revise strategy

Posted: February 18, 2012 at 7:16 pm


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WASHINGTON -- Rick Santorum's surprising momentum at a critical stage in the presidential race has forced the Obama campaign to reassess its re-election strategy, which for months has revolved around the likelihood that Mitt Romney would be the president's Republican rival.

With several victories and some strong poll numbers under his belt, Mr. Santorum has garnered more attention at the Obama campaign's Chicago headquarters in recent weeks. The campaign has begun digging into Mr. Santorum's background, diverting opposition researchers who had been scrutinizing Mr. Romney. They also blasted an email to supporters in Pennsylvania, asking them to submit their most damning recollections of Mr. Santorum, a former senator from the state.

Though campaign officials still view Mr. Romney as the likely nominee, they have begun to consider the implications of a Santorum victory. They view him as a weaker general election opponent, but one who has shown an ability to connect with the population that is most disillusioned with Mr. Obama: white, blue-collar voters.

"Looking at the way the Republican race is unfolding, we'd be derelict if we didn't begin looking at Santorum as a real potential opponent," said Stephanie Cutter, deputy campaign manager for the Obama campaign.

Mr. Santorum has appeared increasingly confident of his prospects, campaigning heavily in Michigan -- a state that until recently was considered a shoo-in for Mr. Romney -- and touting his strong poll numbers in Ohio. Both are crucial swing states with large numbers of manufacturing workers.

He has centered his message on his social conservatism and blue-collar roots. But he has also tried to address his biggest weakness -- the perception that Mr. Romney would do better against Mr. Obama. During a campaign stop in Shelby Township, Mich., Friday, Mr. Santorum argued that he has a record of beating better-funded and more moderate candidates.

"Do you want someone who can go up against Barack Obama, take him on on the big issues of health care ... the Wall Street bailouts, cap-and-trade?" Mr. Santorum asked several hundred people at a rally hosted by the Michigan Faith and Family Coalition. "Or do you want someone who can just manage Washington a little better?"

Democratic strategists say they had long prepared for an unpredictable Republican primary race, but Mr. Santorum's surge caught them by surprise in part because they did not expect Mr. Romney to face such a difficult path to the nomination.

Early on, Mr. Obama's campaign had made it clear that they viewed Mr. Romney's venture capitalist past as a liability. But they did not expect that Mr. Romney's rival, Newt Gingrich, would use the issue to such great effect. And they were helped by the candidate's own difficulty explaining his personal wealth and why he paid a lower tax rate than many in the middle class.

Despite Mr. Santorum's momentum, Democrats see him as a significantly flawed candidate in a general election.

They believe his politics, particularly on social issues, are too conservative for most swing voters. The former Pennsylvania senator opposes all abortion and has made his opposition to the Obama administration's mandate that religious institutions offer contraceptive coverage a central campaign theme.

They also predict that Mr. Santorum would be less formidable on the fundraising front. Mr. Romney has galvanized the financial community behind his candidacy because of his professional ties, but Mr. Santorum would lack such an advantage.

They believe Mr. Santorum is just as vulnerable as Mr. Romney on his economic plan. Both opposed the bailout of the auto companies and have promised to repeal new laws regulating Wall Street. Both have endorsed tax cuts that Democrats will argue hurt the middle class, and would force draconian cuts to education and the social safety net.

But they acknowledge that Mr. Santorum appears to be connecting with white working-class voters, who have been hit hard by the foreclosure crisis and job losses and who largely disapprove of the president's leadership. If Mr. Santorum wins, he may fare better in Midwestern swing states that would be crucial to Mr. Obama's re-election.

Mr. Romney "can't capitalize on the president's weakness with lower-income, non-college voters," said a Democratic strategist working to re-elect the president, granted anonymity in order to speak freely about internal strategy. "Rick Santorum has a better message for that community."

Mr. Santorum's approval rating among GOP voters in January jumped 12 points to 61 percent in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, with the increase almost entirely among those without a college degree. Mr. Romney has struggled with this group, exit polls show.

Mr. Santorum has a mixed record in his appeal to swing voters. Despite his deeply conservative values, he successfully ran for Senate twice in Pennsylvania, a swing state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections. But he failed to win a third term, losing by 18 points in 2006 to Democrat Bob Casey.

First published on February 18, 2012 at 12:00 am

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Road to the White House: Santorum success forces Dems to revise strategy

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