Facebook's Future Success Lies in Mobile

Posted: June 28, 2012 at 10:15 pm


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By Tony Daltorio - June 28, 2012 | Tickers: FB, GLUU, ZNGA | 0 Comments

Tony is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

Traders buying Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) looking for a quick pop have certainly been disappointed. But what about longer-term investors? Is Facebook a company worth owning? The answer may lie in whether the company is able to come up with a mobile strategy.

On the surface, Facebook looks like a web powerhouse, with hundreds of thousands of apps and sites building on its social network site. But in the mobile world, it looks like just another applications developer. And one that, like others, is dependent on platforms owned by Apple or Google for distribution. Facebook management has recognized this and has made some moves including a series of acquisitions and a new app store as part of its attempt to adapt to the mobile device world we live in.

Data from research firm Gartner reinforces the idea that Facebook had better adapt and quickly if it is to be a profitable company. It estimates that revenue from non-mobile social media will climb to $10.2 billion in 2015 from the $1.3 billion level in 2010. But mobile social media revenue is forecast to rise to $29.1 billion in 2015 from $7.3 billion in 2010.

Clearly mobile social media is a sector in which Facebook has to become a major player. Facebook itself admitted before the IPO that growth in advertising sales isn't keeping pace with the gains in the number of users, many of which are logging on via mobile devices. Facebook sent more than 160 million visitors to mobile apps in April 2012 alone! This is a colossal opportunity for the company and it has to simply find a way to monetize those visitors.

One way Facebook can try to catch up fast in the mobile world is through acquisitions of companies rooted in mobile technology. It has already acquired mobile tech companies Tagtile and Glancee, not to mention Facebook's $1 billion offer for Instagram.

But of course, Facebook has to acquire the 'right' type of mobile technology companies from the myriad of choices out there. Many of these companies use the old-fashioned method of throwing a bunch of stuff against the wall and seeing what sticks. Mobile gaming companies, like Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA) and Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU) use that strategy. Zynga, with more than 290 million active users, spent over $56 million in the first quarter acquiring new users.

Glu Mobile is a leading global developer and publisher of freemium games for smartphones and tablets. Some of its most popular games are available now at the new Facebook App Center. It is well positioned in a market forecast to grow to $16 billion by 2015. But it still follows the strategy of building and hoping. Also think of the creator of the highly successful Angry Birds game, Rovio Entertainment. It was another 'build it and they will come' company that had a lot of losers before hitting upon Angry Birds.

It should be mentioned though that Zynga to date has been successful, providing Facebook with many of its most popular games including Farmville and CityVille. In fact, Zynga supplied Facebook with 12 percent of its revenues in 2011, its largest source of income.

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Facebook's Future Success Lies in Mobile

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June 28th, 2012 at 10:15 pm

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