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Economic discontent and substantial dissatisfaction with Barack Obamas performance in office are keeping Mitt Romney competitive in the presidential race but not by enough of a margin to overcome Obamas stronger personal profile. The result: A dead heat in voter preferences at the midsummer stage, with the prospect of an epic battle ahead.

While most Americans continue to disapprove of Obamas handling of the economy, thats not his only problem. More than half fault him on health care and immigration as well. Sixty-three percent say the countrys headed in the wrong direction, an unhelpful view for an incumbent. And among groups, hes losing swing-voting independents by a record 14 percentage points.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Yet Romney faces significant challenges of his own in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. His supporters are more apt to be against Obama than explicitly for Romney a negative vote that can be less compelling than an affirmative one. His supporters are less strongly enthusiastic than Obamas. While Obama is vulnerable on the economy, Romney is weakly rated on having offered a clear economic plan. And Obama leads on a range of personal attributes empathy, standing up for his beliefs and, especially, basic likeability.

Obama also continues to prevail in expectations: Despite his troubles, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that Americans by 58-34 percent expect him ultimately to defeat Romney and win a second term. Thats Obamas best on this gauge to date (previously measured against the Republican nominee), a sharp difference from last October, when, with economic discontent at a higher pitch, 55 percent thought Obama would lose. Today, even among Romneys supporters, a quarter think Obama will win.

With a 47-47 percent Obama-Romney contest among registered voters, the overall results point to a sharply defined race: On one hand Obama, the more personally popular candidate, with a larger and more energized partisan base, yet weak performance scores; on the other Romney, his opportunities to capitalize on Obamas vulnerabilities complicated by his difficulties in capturing the publics imagination.

Helpful to Obama, given the economy, is the fact that in deciding their vote, Americans by 51-33 percent are focused more on what hed do in his second term as president than on what hes done in his first. Among registered voters who are more concerned about what Obamas done so far, Romney leads by 18 points, 55-37 percent. Among those more focused on what hed do if elected to a second term, by contrast, Obama leads by 59-36 percent, a 23-point margin. It marks why hes trying to point ahead (Forward is the campaign slogan); Romney, back.

ROOM Theres room to move: One in five of Romneys current supporters, and one in six of Obamas, say theres a chance they could change their mind and support the other candidate. Very few, though, say theres a good chance they could shift a mere 4 percent of Obamas supporters, 8 percent of Romneys.

That suggests that more than changing minds, the contest likely is to be about motivating turnout and here Obama has an edge. Among registered voters, half of his supporters (51 percent) are very enthusiastic, vs. 38 percent of Romneys. It can matter: Strong enthusiasm is a measure on which Obama crushed John McCain in 2008, and on which George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004. Still, while lagging, Romneys strong enthusiasm has improved by a dozen points since spring.

Link:
Dead Heat for Obama, Romney in Voter Preferences