Betting on a Global Recovery with Chemicals

Posted: November 3, 2012 at 5:44 pm


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By Meena Krishnamsetty - November 2, 2012 | Tickers: CE, DD, EMN, FMC, DOW | 0 Comments

Meena is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN) was up over 12% last week as earnings beat expectations. The company posted EPS of $1.57, while consensus estimates were at $1.42 a share. The chemical industry should see positive demand in the future as global growth is expected to rise 2.6% in 2013, up from a projected growth of 2.4% in 2012.

With a beta of 2.0, the company will definitely be able to capitalize on a global economic recovery. Eastman has shown positive performance thanks to a major acquisition and low raw material costs. Management now expectsto earn $5.30-$5.40 per share for 2012, which is ahead of the consensus of $5.26 a share. Heres a look at the hedge fund industrys sentiment toward Eastman.

Eastman competes with the top two chemical companies in the U.S.Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) is the largest American chemical company, and E I Du Pont De Nemours (NYSE: DD) is the second largest U.S. chemicals manufacturer. Also worth noting is that both of these top chemical companies pay dividends that yield in excess of 4%.

Unlike Eastman, Dow Chemical saw lower than expected earnings estimates and lowered its full year guidance. Last quarter, the company posted EPS of $0.42, versus $0.62 in the same quarter a year ago. The company did manage to see improvements in its agricultural and performance plastics segments. Also, the company plans to undertake various cost cutting initiatives to sustain earnings, should a weak global economy continue. Among these include the recently announced closure of twenty manufacturing facilities and the cutting of 2,400 jobs.

DuPont also announced lower than expected earnings for last quarter and a reduced full year EPS outlook, which dragged the stock down 10% over the past week. The company posted EPS of $0.44, compared to $0.69 for the prior year. DuPont attributed the decline to volume decreases in performance chemicals and a slowdown in Asia, while Dow cited the slowdown in Europe as their biggest headwind.

Following the announcement, S&P lowered its recommendation on DuPont from buy to sell and placed a $41 price target on the company, below the company's current price around $45.25. The news comes even after the company's effort to boost its cash business by selling off its performance coatings segment to the Carlyle Group for $4.9 billion back in August; check out our other thoughts on whether or not DuPont is a good buy.

Celanese Corporation (NYSE: CE) is another chemical producer, though it's focused on industrials and engineered plastics. Sales are expected to fall 1% in 2012, with growth picking up in 2013, growing in the range of 5%-7%. The company's 2013 growth should be driven by improvements in domestic manufacturing and a rise in engineered plastics used in North America's auto industry. The company is also making trends in geographic expansion, but has more exposure to weakness in Europe and Asia given that over 70% of its sales come from outside the U.S.

FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) is a diversified producer of industrial, specialty, and agricultural chemicals. After an 8.4% rise in sales for 2011, the company is expected to grow sales another 10.5% in 2012. This chemical company is riding EPS growth that assumes the global farm economy will pick up and that Brazil will see more acreage planted as crops rise. The company has renewed its focus on the higher margin agricultural business, which should help it to see margin expansion in the future.

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Betting on a Global Recovery with Chemicals

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November 3rd, 2012 at 5:44 pm




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