Control Your Emotions, Direct Your Thoughts, Ordain Your Destiny – Seeking Alpha
Posted: August 19, 2017 at 8:43 am
Back when I was in high school, I got selected to go to a program called "Camp Enterprise," which was run by the Rotary Club. It was pretty impressive in hindsight. At the time, I was just happy to get a couple of days out of school and then get to dance with a pretty girl at the closing party.
Some of the speakers for the camp included business executives who traveled a couple of hours to talk to kids from various high schools. I remember in particular Marc Marotta, a former Marquette Warrior basketball player who became a prominent lawyer and community leader, and Ulice Payne Jr., another Marquette alum who went onto a trailblazing law and business career, who eventually became president of my beloved Milwaukee Brewers.
In one of the breakout sessions, we had a presentation that featured some thoughts from Napoleon Hill's writings. The title of today's article is a little different from an actual quote from Hill. The actual quote is:
"Direct your thoughts, control your emotions, and ordain your destiny!"
I have taken that with me in life, using it to stay balanced when things were going bad and when things are going good. I also applied it when I coached kids and men's sports teams, getting some good results and positive outcomes after the sports were done. I have made a point of using it for investing too.
I rarely tell people to sell specific securities unless they hire me to do a portfolio review. However, I have made a point of suggesting people sell some popular dividend growth stocks lately, mostly because those stocks lack the "growth" part of the equation anymore and are carrying historically high valuations.
In making a case for selling Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ) and Procter & Gamble (PG), I got some spectacularly emotionally charged responses. The same happened when I made the case for selling Altria (NYSE:MO) due to slowing growth on secular trends and government hurdles.
Take a look at any article about Tesla (TSLA). The flood of emotion, and ideology, are all over the place. How does any of that add to the discussion of whether Tesla is likely to succeed?
The same emotions spill out on oil investments, which get it from the "end fossil fuels now" crowd and the "oil forever and ever" crowd. Does injecting emotional ideology really help anybody's analysis? I think it hurts.
Over 25 years in the financial industry, I can say that my number one observation is that emotions, whether it is outright fear, or some sort of self-validation issue (often related to ideology or group affiliation), are the number one impediment to investor success.
When analyzing an investment, Jim Rogers said in an interview with Fortune, "I realized right away that if I just literally read a company's annual report and the notes -- or better yet, two or three years of reports -- that I would know much more than others."
I concur with that idea, but I also am a realist and know that folks don't have 50 hours per week to read like some of us do. So, at least ask the important questions if you are getting a synthesis of the information from others.
Here are three stocks that create a lot of emotional discussion. I would pose these are some of the questions that really need unemotional answering. I follow up with some quick thoughts of what I am thinking for you to ponder.
Tesla:
Ultimately, with Tesla, if it can ramp up business on cars without massive dilution, they have a chance. I don't think we can discount the power of affluent millennials buying Tesla EVs.
Residential solar is the least efficient solar and relies on individual homeowners, many of whom are strapped to make a big capital investment unless the company absorbs it which comes with different problems.
China has at least six battery plants getting ready to go and there is much more cost efficient battery storage (for microgrids and grid) than lithium that are major competitors for Tesla.
China and India seem to want Tesla factories, so I don't believe financing is a problem, but I expect deals to be like the one with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), which include dilution.
For me, I'm calling a Munger on this one and passing on any call on the company even though I think it's dramatically overvalued. Tesla is too hard to figure out, so I am avoiding Tesla from either side.
If you own shares, now is a good time to sell Tesla in my opinion on valuation concerns as the company would have to become the largest manufacturer in the world to justify the current price. I think that is unlikely and if it does happen, it'll be a very long time in the future.
Exxon Mobil (XOM):
Earlier this year, Exxon removed 3.5 billion barrels of tar sands oil from its reserves at Kearl, where it still has 1.3 billion barrels it plans to develop - for now. The company has billions more barrels with little to no value around the world, that it will have to write off eventually, if oil prices don't stage a significant and long rally.
Exxon is America's largest natural gas producer and has a strong hold on that. Given that natural gas is slowly replacing coal, as wind and solar soak up 100% of net new production needs, it seems apparent that the natural gas assets are valuable long term. Exports of American natural gas further support the future pricing of U.S. natural gas.
Whether you believe man is responsible for a significant portion of climate change or not, 195 nations are currently on board with the Paris Climate Agreement, so regulations could change dramatically if a "green" politician is elected president at some point with a sympathetic Congress. I find it likely regulations change dramatically eventually.
If the world starts going greener in an even more pronounced way, then Exxon could use its money to go more towards alternative energy - and, of course, that would be expensive.
Exxon is a hold to me here, but I would patiently be looking to sell it into the next oil bull market.
Pfizer (PFE):
Pfizer is a company that I worry about the growth aspects. Not only is the company soon to lose patent exclusivity on Viagra at the end of this year, with Teva (NYSE:TEVA) able to manufacture a generic, but also on Lyrica at the end of next year.
The Viagra expiration is extremely dangerous for Pfizer as it represents another hit to what was its main revenue driver a few years ago. Already, Eli Lilly's (LLY) Cialis has been boning into Viagra sales and now it'll have a generic to fight off.
To be sure, Pfizer has a significant pipeline, despite licensing out some lines a while back. The problem is that nothing is certain to be the next billion-dollar drug and they need one soon. Maybe Ertugliflozin, which is designed to reduce blood glucose levels is that drug, but diabetes 2 treatments are a crowded space at this point, so it's hard to project.
My greatest concern for Pfizer, and other drug makers, is that the pharmaceutical companies are soon going to see major legislative shifts that dig into profit margins. Socially, that might be good, but at the stock level, it sure wouldn't be. That's a real risk investors should consider.
As the baby boomers get older, there is certainly going to be more demand for drugs. Will it be enough to offset fewer home run pills and potentially tougher market conditions owing to legislation? That's very hard to tell.
While Pfizer is at no risk of going to zero, I think retesting their ten-year lows is a very real possibility amid a transition at the company and likely the industry. I rate Pfizer a sell at the current price levels and would be hard pressed to add back until I know what the laws on healthcare will be in the future.
In telling people to sell stocks that they might be emotionally tied to due to past performance or ideology, I know I run some risk of being criticized. That's life in the SA fast lane I suppose. Emotionally, it doesn't bother me that I might get flamed. It makes me sad, though, that if I'm right and people disregard what I'm pointing to that they'll lose money and the financial freedom that comes with it.
Controlling my emotions and directing my thoughts to what is truly important is a key that I keep turning. It has served me well to remember to step back from the forest to see the trees. I think it will help you too.
If you found this useful, "follow" me as I am making the transition from MarketWatch to Seeking Alpha and haven't been found by many yet. Also, please forward, tweet, like this article if you found it helpful. Thank you. You can find a history of my articles via TipRanks.com, which ranks me in the top decile across all time frames.
For those of you who are considering joining Margin of Safety Investing, I am running a special through Labor Day that includes getting the service for only $250/year for the life of the service (I plan to run it until I'm around 70 years-old and am 47 now) vs. the regular price of $365/year. I plan to raise the regular rate once there are 1000 subscribers in order to protect the integrity of the stock picks for members who are accumulating.
But wait, there's more, people who subscribe by Labor Day will also get a free portfolio review with me via email and a personalized online webinar. I normally charge a minimum of $800 for portfolio consulting at my investment firm, but will do it for free for all new members through Labor Day. It will take a couple months to do those reviews, so join today to get to the front of the line, reviews start immediately following Labor Day.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I own a Registered Investment Advisor, however, publish separately from that entity for self-directed investors. Any information, opinions, research or thoughts presented are not specific advice as I do not have full knowledge of your circumstances. All investors ought to take special care to consider risk, as all investments carry the potential for loss. Consulting an investment advisor might be in your best interest before proceeding on any trade or investment.
Read the original:
Control Your Emotions, Direct Your Thoughts, Ordain Your Destiny - Seeking Alpha
- Master Keys to Success Video [Last Updated On: June 20th, 2011] [Originally Added On: June 20th, 2011]
- Barbara Marx Hubbard, Conscious Evolution [Last Updated On: August 10th, 2011] [Originally Added On: August 10th, 2011]
- Personal Empowerment - Counselling and Hypnotherapy in ... [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- How to Increase Self Empowerment | EnergyFanatics.com [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- What is Empowerment, why is it so important, how do I get it? [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Self Empowerment Exercise - Inspired Personal Development [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Empowerment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Quotes About Self Empowerment (203 quotes) - Goodreads [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Personal Empowerment Solutions.com [Last Updated On: September 16th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 16th, 2015]
- The Self Empowerment Guide [Last Updated On: September 16th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 16th, 2015]
- Empowering Women - Self Empowerment, Personal & Spiritual ... [Last Updated On: September 25th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 25th, 2015]
- Dolphin Empowerment for Energy Healing with Takara Home [Last Updated On: September 25th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 25th, 2015]
- Ten Guideposts to Self-Empowerment - Possibility Coaches [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2015] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2015]
- Minds Of Power: What Is Personal Empowerment? [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2015] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2015]
- Personal Empowerment - Empowerment Institute [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2015] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2015]
- destressifying: The Real-World Guide to Personal ... [Last Updated On: October 23rd, 2015] [Originally Added On: October 23rd, 2015]
- Leadership Skills for Nurse Managers: Personal Empowerment [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Personal Empowerment Group . com - Empowering You [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Definition: Personal Empowerment - SelfGrowth.com [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Personal Empowerment Institute | Personal Empowerment ... [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Personal Empowerment Today [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Personal Empowerment Is More Than a Feeling | Psychology Today [Last Updated On: January 26th, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 26th, 2016]
- Self Empowerment Appears Fundamental For Personal Development [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2016]
- Personal Empowerment Coach Certification - The S.W.A.T ... [Last Updated On: February 1st, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 1st, 2016]
- Personal Empowerment Program : World Youth [Last Updated On: February 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 27th, 2016]
- Series On Personal Empowerment at Psychology, Philosophy ... [Last Updated On: March 12th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 12th, 2016]
- The Secrets of Personal Empowerment [Last Updated On: May 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 22nd, 2016]
- Exercise - Articles and Advice [Last Updated On: July 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 1st, 2017]
- Fly Charts: Warren Buffett's Good Mood and Organic Activism - Bloomberg [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2017]
- Distinguished Young Women inspire Westminster Boys and Girls - Carroll County Times [Last Updated On: July 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 9th, 2017]
- Susan Lake and Laura Meeks, life coaches, to speak - Idyllwild Town Cier [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Shamanic Healer and Teacher Anahata Ananda Presents Powerful 2-Day Shamangelic Breathwork Facilitation ... - Benzinga [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Kathleen Mitchell obituary - The Guardian [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Sowing education and empowerment with needle and thread - The San Diego Union-Tribune [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Art auction to support local charities - La Crosse Tribune [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- I took an empowering women's self-defense workshop at a boxing gym, and here's why everyone should try it - HelloGiggles [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Q&A: New YWCA CEO Vanessa McDowell emphasizes empowerment - Madison.com [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- RadKIDS combines safety and fun | K-12 Education ... - Columbia Missourian [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Empowerment - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Claire Saenz, Looking in the 'Mirror' and Seeing the Self - The Good Men Project (blog) [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- Quota for three tribes in Arunachal pageant: Case of cross-wired activism - Hindustan Times [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- What does a reconciled town look like? - Toward Reconciliation [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- National women's conference focuses on empowerment - The Philadelphia Tribune [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- Republican leader's 1898 tweet a pathetic overture - Myrtle Beach Sun News [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- More than one way to address San Diego homeless crisis - The San Diego Union-Tribune [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- Personal Empowerment | SkillsYouNeed [Last Updated On: August 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 12th, 2017]
- How to Find Success Where You Least Expect It - Influencive [Last Updated On: August 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 19th, 2017]
- Kellogg column: Launch your unstoppable cycle of success, attain financial freedom - Glenwood Springs Post Independent [Last Updated On: August 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 19th, 2017]
- Entrepreneurs, time to test your business knowledge - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: August 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 19th, 2017]
- The Primary Barrier Stopping You From Everything You Want In Life ... - Inc.com [Last Updated On: August 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 19th, 2017]
- Think and Grow Rich - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: August 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 19th, 2017]
- Back-to-School Corner | Multiple education pathways at secondary level - Jamaica Gleaner [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- The Telegraph | SIUE students learn about community service - Alton Telegraph [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Baynes: African Americans giving back - Sarasota Herald-Tribune [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- To Inspire Future Space Travelers, Bring Space-Based Research to Schools - Space.com [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Youth Empowerment: Punjab leads the way - The Nation (blog) [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Why Zuckerberg won't be president, Uncle Sam's role in Houston's floods & other comments - New York Post [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Mrs Universe contestants empower Durban pupils - Rising Sun Chatsworth [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Naqvi-Mohamed: Communities join forces to battle prejudice and fear - Montreal Gazette [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Home - Pandora Astrology [Last Updated On: August 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 30th, 2017]
- Center for High Impact Philanthropy's new report outlines how to best help women and girls around the world - Generocity [Last Updated On: August 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 31st, 2017]
- Youth Empowerment: Punjab leads the way - Daily Times [Last Updated On: August 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 31st, 2017]
- Community empowerment, not walls, will prevent Zika - The Hill (blog) [Last Updated On: August 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 31st, 2017]
- 'Be not afraid.' Why the words of John Paul II still resonate - Troy Media [Last Updated On: August 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 31st, 2017]
- On Shakti-goddesses, who were fierce and emancipated - The Hindu - The Hindu [Last Updated On: August 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 31st, 2017]
- Does Loyalty in the NBA Still Exist? - The Ringer (blog) [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- Jaspers Attend Lasallian Women's Symposium in New Zealand - The Quadrangle [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- Faith In Recovery 7: How Religious Communities Combat Addiction - World Religion News [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- Why the Cambodian government arrested our father in the middle of the night - Washington Post [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- Beware the cult of 'tech fixing' it's why America is eyeing the ... - The Conversation UK [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- Run The Jewels On Empowerment And Shared Humanity - NPR - NPR [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- 'Home Again' Finds Reese Witherspoon Trying To Resuscitate The Rom-Com - UPROXX [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- A job after prison: Advocates make the case for an under-used workforce - WatertownDailyTimes.com [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2017]
- Quotes About Self Empowerment (245 quotes) - Goodreads [Last Updated On: October 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: October 6th, 2017]
- Charlotte Kasl [Last Updated On: October 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: October 23rd, 2017]
- Beth Koehler, CPC | Personal Empowerment Life Coach ... [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2017]
- Hope Ranch Personal Empowerment Through Horses [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2017] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2017]
- destressifying: The Real-World Guide to Personal Empowerment ... [Last Updated On: December 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: December 19th, 2017]
- IUC Journal of Social Work Theory and Practice [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2018] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2018]
- Empowerment Training - Power of Breath Institute [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2018] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2018]