Bitcoin (BTC) focused on $44,000 into its first weekly close of 2024 as multiple new volatility catalysts lined up.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed narrowing volatility in BTC price performance over the weekend.

Markets remained nervous as to how BTC/USD might react to the approval or denial of the United States first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) a decision due by Jan. 10.

As Cointelegraph reported, the seminal event is widely predicted to deal a temporary blow to bulls in the form of a BTC price retracement in a sell the news event. Others see a chance for knee-jerk upside potentially challenging key psychological levels.

Regardless of which direction the move might take, indicators nonetheless pointed to a breakout from the narrow intraday range.

Among them was the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, now narrowing on daily timeframes in a classic precursor to range expansion.

Bollinger Bands tightening even more heading into ETF week, trader and commentator Matthew Hyland told subscribers on X (formerly Twitter) overnight.

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades added that the so-called spot premium was once again active on Bitcoin markets, with derivatives traders seemingly wary of going long or short after last weeks snap liquidations.

The longer we range around this price area the more positions will build up with stop losses/liquidations sitting above and below the price, he continued, alongside a heatmap of leveraged BTC/USDT liquidity on the largest global exchange, Binance.

While attention remained focused on the ETF, macroeconomic hurdles were waiting in the wings.

Related:March banking crisis rerun risks 40% Bitcoin price crash Arthur Hayes

These were in the form of U.S. inflation data, with the December prints of both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index due in the coming days.

Traditionally a source of short-term volatility for crypto and risk assets in their own right, the data releases would ostensibly need to show inflation continuing to subside.

As Cointelegraph reported, the key result of this the Federal Reserve pivoting on interest rate policy is not currently expected to occur at its next dedicated meeting at the end of the month.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin traders see breakout as bulls cling to $44K in ETF countdown - Cointelegraph

The price of one whole Bitcoin (BTC) can deter potential investors who are hesitant to buy only a fraction of the cryptocurrency due to unit bias psychology, which favors owning complete units, according to VanEck adviser Gabor Gurbacs. He suggests that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) are a solution to this challenge.

In a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter), Gurbacs stated that many people are still unaware they can own a part of a Bitcoin and suggested there are even more individuals who prefer to own only complete assets:

Furthermore, he reiterates that it seems more appealing to investors to own a whole asset than a fraction.

Owning a full share feels better than owning 0.001 Bitcoin. Seems like a small thing but its a big thing, he stated.

Although Gurbacs recognizes that this debate is not new, he argues that biases represent one of the most valuable tools for understanding markets.

Simplistic but unit bias psychology matters a lot. I think about this a lot, he further added.

Related: BlackRock to slash 3% of workforce ahead of Bitcoin ETF deadline: Report

Meanwhile, the crypto industry is filled with high expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will greenlight a spot Bitcoin ETF in the upcoming week.

However, the broader financial services industry is more skeptical of the chance it will happen.

In a recent survey by Bitwisewith responses from 437 financial advisers, just 39% of U.S. financial advisers anticipate the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in 2024.

Cointelegraph recently reported that the final steps for a spot Bitcoin ETF debut on Wall Street are in progress, with final revisions from asset managers expected by the morning of Jan. 8.

The revisions must be submitted through S-1 filings before the start of business, and applicants are expected to reveal the remaining fees and tickers.

BlackRock has not yet disclosed the fees associated with its ETF.

Magazine: 10 best long reads about crypto in 2023

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Bitcoin ETFs will solve unit bias psychology, says VanEck adviser - Cointelegraph

The first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could launch as soon as next week, but the fee wars between the likes of Fidelity Investments and Invesco have already begun.

Those companies for the first time are detailing in federal filings their planned fees for some of the most anticipated funds in history. The filings show that while the launch of ETFs could end up bolstering the coins, they arent likely to be a bonanza for the companies offering them, at least in the near term.

Fidelity, for example, in a filing on Friday said its Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund will charge merely 0.39% annually in expense fees. Invesco and crypto firm Galaxy, which seek to launch the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, said their fund plans to charge 0.59%, though the fee will be waived for six months on the first $5 billion in assets. Other would-be contenders, including Bitwise Asset Management and BlackRock havent yet said in their filings what their funds will charge, and the proposed fees could change before launch in any case.

A BlackRock spokeswoman and a Bitwise spokeswoman each declined to comment.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to soon give the green light to launch funds that hold spot Bitcoin. Funds that hold Bitcoin futures, like ProShares Bitcoin Strategy, have existed since 2021. The agency for years denied such spot Bitcoin applications, but an appellate court last year said the SECs rejection of one such bid was arbitrary and capricious.

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Though the SEC could come up with another reason for rejecting the funds, agency staff have asked potential sponsors for filing updates and other information that would seem to indicate approvals are imminent.

The SEC declined to comment.

Some analysts estimate that the launch of the funds could bring tens of billions of dollars into Bitcoin, as some financial advisors get an easy way to access the cryptocurrency for the first time. On Tuesday, Bitcoins price broke through $45,000 powered in part by anticipation of the ETFs.

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But even if that ends up being the case, it isnt looking like the funds will be an immediate windfall for their sponsors.

Right now, the largest Bitcoin fund is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, operated by Grayscale Investments with $26 billion under management. The trust trades like a closed-end fund with price that can deviate from the value of the coins it holds. While the discount had been as steep as 50% in 2022, on Friday it was merely 8%.

The Grayscale funds annual fee right now is 2% of its assets, or about $520 million at current prices.

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Grayscale hasnt said what the fund will charge if it converts. A spokeswoman said only that the company is committed to lowering the fee upon approval.

Out of the starting gate, the Grayscales fund will likely have better liquidity than other contenders, meaning tighter bid/ask spreads for rapid traders who care less about annual expense ratios.

Still, given Fidelity and Invescos disclosures, it is already safe to conclude that the Bitcoin funds wont be a cash cow. At Fidelitys expense ratio, for example, Grayscales $26 billion fund would only yield $101 million in fees, before taking into account the expenses of running the fund.

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Even if the assets under management of the total Bitcoin ETF space were to be double the size of the Grayscale fund, a 0.39% fee would represent only about 1% of the $17.8 billion in revenues that analysts estimate BlackRock earned in 2023. And thats at the starting gate, before fund companies start undercutting one another.

The potential saving grace for fund companies and Bitcoin investors is that some analysts predict the ETF launches could drive prices much higher.

Analysts for Bernstein Research in a note on Tuesday said the coins market cap could more than triple to $3 trillion by mid-2025.

Our only message from the outlook report is BUY THE DIP. And every dip the market offers in 2024, wrote the analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani.

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com

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Bitcoin ETFs Are Almost Here. The Fee War Is Already Heating Up. - Barron's

Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase Global have gained on the potential approval of exchange-traded funds tied to the spot price of Bitcoin but Mizuho Securities Dan Dolev is warning the company might not receive the hoped-for benefits.

Coinbase shares were down 1% in early trading at $150.94, reversing earlier gains. The cryptocurrency exchanges stock has tumbled from highs of more than $180 a share in recent days but it has still more than quadrupled over the past 12 months.That has prompted caution that the stock might be getting ahead of itself, including from Barrons.

Mizuhos Dolev, a longtime skeptic on the stock, sounded another warning on Thursday. He warned that while the rally has been based on excitement over the expected approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the reality might disappoint.

With the hype around Bitcoin ETFs likely to reach a climax in the coming weeks, COIN bulls could experience a rough awakening when they realize how minimal the revenue impact is, wrote Dolev.

Dolev reiterated an Underperform rating on Coinbase. His target for the stock price is $54, a bit more than one-third of its current level.

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The analysts calculations are based on the assumption that around $81 billion of new investment might flow into Bitcoin ETFs if they are approved. That would represent close to 10% of the current market capitalization of the digital currency.

Dolev estimates that Coinbase might end up serving as custodian of around half of that money.That would imply roughly $25 million-$30 million of custody-fee revenue earned by Coinbase on the Bitcoin ETFs, according to the Mizuho analyst.

A bigger boost could come from increased trading of Bitcoin on exchanges such as Coinbase. Assuming annual trading volume increased by around $83 billion, and applying Coinbases historical market share and fees, that implies around $200 million-$210 million of additional revenue, according to Dolev.

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This represents just mid-to-high single-digit percentage upside vs. current 2024 consensus, Dolev wrote. The potential upside to COIN revenue from Bitcoin ETF [approval] may be far less than what the stock indicates.

Coinbase didnt immediately respond to a request for comment from Barrons on Thursday.

It is worth noting that the calculations are sensitive to the assumptions made about what the approval of Bitcoin ETFs might mean for the sector. Analysts at Bernstein Research have estimated that the approval might help bring an additional $600 billion in funds into the crypto sector, considerably more than Dolevs estimate.

However, Dolev is hardly alone in his skepticism toward Coinbase stock. The average target for the stock price among Wall Street analysts tracked by FactSet

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Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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Coinbase Stock Wobbles as Analyst Warns Gains From Bitcoin ETFs Might Disappoint - Barron's

Source: Upbit

Ben Zhou, the co-founder and CEO of Bybit has expressed optimism over the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF but he also believes that this is not a make or break scenario for the leading cryptocurrency.

In his view, its the institutions that need the ETF, not Bitcoin. Pointing to Bitcoins resilience over the past two years amid challenges such as bankruptcies, regulatory hurdles, and banking crises, Zhou underlined that Bitcoins fundamentals drive its growth. Zhou told CryptoNews:

The Bitcoin ETF has been a long time coming. But now, with BlackRock and other TradFi juggernauts in the mix, the odds of approval are higher than ever. If approved, the effects will permeate the entire crypto market, bringing not only new money but also a new sense of confidence.

Despite the positive outlook, Zhou acknowledged that there are still unresolved questions surrounding the potential a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. However, he expressed confidence in Bitcoins ability to outperform other assets, irrespective of regulatory developments. He added:

There are still a lot of questions to be resolved, but we know this much: crypto isnt too volatile or unregulated to warrant an ETF. The persistence of BlackRock and others indicate Bitcoins maturation as an asset class.

As reported earlier, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood also expressed optimism regarding the approval of the much anticipated ETF by the U.S. SEC. Wood highlighted the encouraging signs for approval in January 2024 and stressed the importance of a spot Bitcoin ETF in stimulating institutional interest in the crypto space.

While Zhou and Wood share optimism about the potential impact of the ETF, both leaders caution that Bitcoins fundamentals, rather than ETF approval, remain the key driver of its sustained growth. Investors and market participants are expecting the US SEC to decide this week.

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Institutions Need the ETF, Not Bitcoin, Says Bybit CEO - Cryptonews

Even with a regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrency exchanges in the past year, the price of bitcoin rose steadily through most of 2023, and now sits at around $43,610 a nearly $18,000 increase in value since September.

Bitcoin hit a peak value of around $68,000 in November 2021. But by November 2022, it had lost more than 75% of that value following the collapse of FTX, the largest cryptocurrency exchange at the time. And now, it's bounced back up again.

Other popular cryptocurrencies have followed a similar trajectory in what has been a remarkable turnaround for an industry battered by scandal. But why now?

Investors have been buying cryptocurrencies ahead of the much-anticipated approval of the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, which is expected later in January.

Pending approval, a slew of investment firms are expected to offer ETFs, most notably Blackrock, the largest asset management firm in the world.

An ETFis an investment fund that tracks the price of an underlying asset or index in this case, bitcoin.

The advantage of a bitcoin or crypto ETF is that it would offer a way for investors to benefit from the price movements of bitcoin without owning the cryptocurrency directly.

If approved, cryptocurrency ETFs are expected to be traded on traditional SEC-regulated exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, according to CoinDesk.

That would open up the cryptocurrency market to a wider array of buyers who don't use cryptocurrency exchanges already. In anticipation of ETF approval, investors have been piling back into the market, which has driven up the price of bitcoin.

"It really opens the door for all kinds of demands. And if demand goes up, price goes up," says Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth and a member of CNBC's Financial Advisor Council. Boneparth holds investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

There are other factors at play, too. The Federal Reserve has signaled that its interest rate hike cycle is over, an encouraging sign for the economy as inflation continues to fall. This has made riskier assets like crypto more attractive to investors.

Another factor is bitcoin's "halving," which is expected in April. Halving is a built-in mechanism related to bitcoin mining that periodically reduces token supply. Decreasing the supply of bitcoin is expected to further stoke demand.

To break it down, the factors behind the recent surge in bitcoin prices are "60% bitcoin ETF, 20% halving and 20% economic conditions," says Boneparth.

However, "be mindful about the relentless upward [price] movement over the past few months," says Owen Lau, executive director at financial services company Oppenheimer & Co. "A lot of the good news appears to have been priced in."

Cryptocurrency is widely seen as a speculative asset that doesn't derive its value from an underlying entity. It's also extremely volatile, sometimes with price fluctuations of 5% to 10% in a single day. There are no guarantees that it will retain any of its current value, either.

As such, financial planners typically advise against investing more than you're willing to lose.

"Bitcoin is the best performing asset class in the last 10 years," says Boneparth. "But owning that performance comes with a large amount of risk."

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Bitcoin has surged 67% in value since Septemberhere's why - CNBC

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Bitcoin ETFs Are Coming Fast. Crypto Investing Will Never Be The Same. - Investor's Business Daily

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This is the Most Interested US State in Spot Bitcoin ETF - CryptoPotato

Our website is a comprehensive guide to digital currency investing & trading.Here are a few suggestions to get started, and get the most from us:

Begin with Bitcoin for Beginners.

Get the edge with our exclusive Bitcoin and cryptoguides.

Check out our Crypto YouTube channel, that includes beginners and advanced tutorial videos and market updates. Dont forget to subscribe!

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Mysterious Bitcoin Transaction: Satoshi Nakamotos Wallet Resurfaces in a $1.17 Million Move - CryptoPotato

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Y'all set to spend another week muttering about imminent spot bitcoin ETF approval? - ForexLive