A Good Reason Why You Should Stay Invested Despite the Bloodbath – Yahoo Finance
Posted: February 29, 2020 at 4:45 am
Keeping calm when markets crash is easier said than done. It is human nature to be fearful when things look bad and the outlook suddenly becomes bleak. Today, Mr. Market (as Benjamin Graham puts it) is testing the patience and courage of investors once again. The Dow declined more than 1,000 points twice this week, making it difficult for investors to keep a clear head.
Source: CNBC.
American stocks have declined for seven consecutive days, and according to Bloomberg data, February 2020 is on its way to becoming the worst month since December 2018.
Source: Bloomberg.
Both the Dow and the S&P 500 Index were down over 10.5% as of Thursday, making this week the worst since the days of the financial crisis.
If ever there was a need to reiterate the importance of staying invested in equity markets, it's now. Investors need reassurance that things will return to their normal state soon, but right now, there's panic.
SunTrust Chief Market Strategist Keith Lerner told Bloomberg on Friday:
"Investors are selling stocks first and asking questions later. We are seeing signs of pure liquidation. 'Get me out at any cost' seems to be the prevailing mood. There is little doubt the coronavirus will continue to weigh on the global economy, and the U.S. will not be immune. There is much we do not know. However, it is also premature to suggest the base case for the U.S. economy is recession."
While that might provide some relief to investors in the sense that a renowned market commentator does not believe a recession is in the cards, investors need something more concrete than that to remain bold and go against the grain.
For 120 years, there has been one clear winner
Credit Suisse Research Institute released an important set of market data spanning 120 years, confirming that none of the popular asset classes could match the returns provided by equity markets. The report, prepared in collaboration with professors from London Business School and Cambridge University, revealed the following performance statistics.
Asset class
Annualized real return between 1900 and 2020
Equities
5.2%
Bonds
2%
Treasury bills
0.8%
The significant outperformance of equity markets reveals one thing: the risk-reward factor is always at play and as an economy grows, so will the stock markets. The ride is not always smooth, however, and there will be speedbumps along the way.
Trying to time the markets is a costly mistake, as Warren Buffet told CNBC earlier this week:
"There have been seven Republican Presidents after that (since buying his first stock at the age of 11) and seven Democratic Presidents and I have bought stocks under every one of them. I haven't bought stocks every day, there have been a few times I felt stocks were really quite high, but that is very seldom."
Further elaborating on his investment career, the guru said that he has bought stocks each year since making his first investment at a very young age. This highlights one important action that could deliver long-term success to investors; buy stocks when they are seemingly cheap, regardless of the macroeconomic or geopolitical outlook for America in the coming years. The country has survived many recessions, epidemics, property market bubbles and two World Wars. None of this could materially impact the long-term performance of stocks, however. Right when it looked as if things would never recover, American markets surprised investors.
Changes in investor sentiment could result in significant volatility in stock prices. However, none of this would likely matter in the long term as much as staying invested does. Numbers don't lie, at least not as much as sentiment and gut feelings do.
Story continues
One more reason to stay calm
Even though many investors might not be aware of this, missing just a few market days could completely erode the profitability of a portfolio. As surprising as this might sound, empirical evidence proves it. In 2019, JPMorgan Asset Management conducted a market performance review to evaluate this phenomena, using data from Jan. 1, 1999 to Dec. 31, 2018.
Source: JPMorgan.
Liquidating a portfolio and waiting for a better time to get in is a common strategy used by fearful investors. However, if such an investor failed to time the markets, which is almost a certainty, and missed just 20 days that ironically happened to be the best days of the market, he would have ended up losing money even though the market performance was positive in this period. What is even more interesting is that investors can never know with any degree of certainty when a bear market will turn bullish.
There's only one way to avoid making this mistake: to remain invested even when markets are crashing. Even though the rational decision might seem to be turning stocks to cash and parking in an interest-bearing account, the numbers prove this is a costly mistake. If, however, an investor had a mechanism to predict the best 10, 20 and 30 days of the market in advance, it would be best to liquidate and wait for such sunny times. But not even institutional investors have been able to decipher such a way to do this, even with the massive advance in quantitative analysis techniques.
Takeaway: Be patient
There's enough data to suggest that trusting U.S. markets even when they are crashing is the right decision. The best way to do this during trying times is to avoid constantly checking stock prices and the value of an investment portfolio as the mostly red numbers might prompt investors to act irrationally. Staying calm and patient is the key, and the market will do its magic as time passes by.
It seems appropriate to end this analysis with something Buffett told CNBC in 2016.
"If you had a chance to buy into a good company in your hometown...and you knew it was a good company and knew good people were running it, and you bought in at a fair price, you wouldn't want to get a quote every day."
Disclosure: I do not own any stocks mentioned in this article.
Read more here:
Not a Premium Member of GuruFocus? Sign up for a free 7-day trial here.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
See the original post:
A Good Reason Why You Should Stay Invested Despite the Bloodbath - Yahoo Finance
- SoundCloud Gets Investment From Union Square, Index [Last Updated On: January 9th, 2011] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2011]
- Return On Investment (ROI) Definition | Investopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investing News - Investment Articles - Investing Research [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- InvestmentNews - The Investing News Source for Financial ... [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investment management - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investment Education & Advice for Investors - Investment U [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Forbes - Investing Information and Investing News - Forbes.com [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Fidelity Investments - Retirement, Funds, and Online Trading [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Investment | Define Investment at Dictionary.com [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Investment Definition | Investopedia [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Find what type of investment is right for you - INVESTMENTS [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Investopedia - Educating the world about finance [Last Updated On: September 20th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 20th, 2015]
- Investment, Mutual Funds, ETFs & Stocks | Bankrate.com [Last Updated On: September 26th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 26th, 2015]
- Gold as an investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: October 4th, 2015] [Originally Added On: October 4th, 2015]
- Green Card Through Investment | USCIS [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- What is Investment ? Meaning and Types of Investment [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Host.al - Albanian Domain AL Accredited Registrar [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Alpha Investment Plan - Alpha Bank Albania [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- RealEstate.al - Apartment-Villa-Office For rent or for sale ... [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Attractiveness of foreign investments in Albania [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- INVESTMENT CLIMATE | Embassy of the Republic of Albania in Japan [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Princip.al :: Welcome to Princip.al [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Foreign direct investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Moats Wealth Mentor for Financial Independence [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment | Nicole Gesmondi Photographer, LLC [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- investment - Thesaurus.com [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- What is Investment? | eHow [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment banking - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Jobs on CareerBuilder.com [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Articles about Investment - timesofindia-economictimes [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Definition - What is Investment? [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investing Basics | Investor.gov [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Best Investments Good Investments in 2015 and Beyond [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Calculators [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment: a key concept in Economics [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- SEC.gov | Investment Companies [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Careers-in-Investment-Banking.com: Your Guide to ... [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2016]
- Investment Property and Investment Real Estate For Sale [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2016]
- Investment and Sustainable Development [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2016]
- Investment Images - Photos - Pictures - CrystalGraphics [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2016]
- Investment - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2016]
- Types of Investments - MoneySENSE [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2016]
- Smart Ways to Invest Your Money and Minimize Risks [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2016]
- Investing in Mining Stocks, Metals and Commodities ... [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2016]
- What is Investment Banking? (with picture) [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2016]
- Investments - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2016]
- investment - English-Spanish Dictionary - WordReference.com [Last Updated On: March 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 20th, 2016]
- Investment fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: March 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 20th, 2016]
- What Is An Investment Bank - An Intro To Investment Banks [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Investment Property Advisors - Home [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Investment Savings Bank [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- US Investment Report [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Investment House [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Best investments - 10 steps to investing money | uSwitch [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- investment - The Motley Fool [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- How to Invest Small Amounts of Money Wisely: 12 Steps [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- Investing with us | HSBC UK [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- Investment Risks | Consumer Information [Last Updated On: June 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 27th, 2016]
- Invest In Shipping Containers | Invest Containers [Last Updated On: July 1st, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 1st, 2016]
- Investment - Trade - European Commission [Last Updated On: July 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 10th, 2016]
- investment | finance | Britannica.com [Last Updated On: August 15th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 15th, 2016]
- What does investment mean? definition, meaning and ... [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 17th, 2016]
- Investment Options | Investment Plans in India | Online ... [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 17th, 2016]
- Investment Returns [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 17th, 2016]
- The Mental Health Benefits of Exercise: The Exercise ... [Last Updated On: July 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 8th, 2017]
- PayPal co-founder launches firm to raise investment funds for SpaceX, report says - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Bitcoin Investment Vehicle Adopts Open Strategy Ahead of Blockchain Fork - CoinDesk [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- How to Spot a Good Investment in a Changing Neighborhood - Mansion Global [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- SoftBank Vision Fund investments so far - CNBC.com - CNBC [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Vanguard's new chief investment officer has a warning for investors - The Denver Post [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- MARKET MATTERS: When life throws a curveball at your investment timeline - New Haven Register [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Investment prosperity can make investors complacent - The Seattle Times [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Risky business: Keeping an eye on Chinese investment - POLITICO.eu [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Somaliland secures record $442m foreign investment deal - CNN [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- China isn't discouraging overseas investment, only regulating it, Beijing-backed think tanker says - CNBC [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- China issues rules to curb state firms' overseas investment risks - Reuters [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- Unilever's Latest Investment Targets New Route into Homes - Fortune [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- Hundreds of jobs, $139 million investment planned in Morgan County by major companies - whnt.com [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]