As eight of the world's very best grandmastersGMs Fabiano Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Alireza Firouzja, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Gukesh Dommaraju, Vidit Gujrathi, and Nijat Abasovdescend on Toronto, Canada for the 2024 Candidates Tournament, only one can emerge with the rights to faceGM Ding Liren in the 2024 FIDE World Championship.

But who will it be? That's the question we're looking at today. Below, you can see the odds that each of these stars takes one step closer to the glory of becoming a world champion, and read on to find out why. Many thanks to Tai Pruce-Zimmerman (@chessnumbers) for running the numbers!

In addition to the stats, four grandmasters have graciously offered their thoughts on the favorites, underdogs, and everyone in between: commentators extraordinaire GM David Howell and GM Robert Hess, 12th women's world champion GM Alexandra Kosteniuk, and Chess.com resident GM Rafael Leitao. Our thanks to all of these brilliant players!

Note: Stats are based on players' official March 2024 ratings.

Caruana is the only player in the world, besides GM Magnus Carlsen, who enters the Candidates Tournament maintaining a 2800 rating. He also has by far the most Candidates Tournament experience in the field, with 2024 being his fifth straight. It all adds up to some very high expectations for the three-time U.S. champion.

Most of our grandmasters agreed with the stats that Caruana is the single favorite in the tournament.

Although I don't like giving predictions in general... Caruana has been showing very consistent results in the last year and clearly is the main contender to win this tournament.

GM Alexandra Kosteniuk

By rating, Nakamura is easily one of the top two players in the Candidates, on a margin of almost 30 points over Firouzja. Nakamura has been in the world's top five every month for a year and, after Caruana, has the tournament's best chance at advancing to the World Championship.

Nakamura just constantly looks like he's in the zone... and he's turned winning into a habit.

GM David Howell

The youngest of the four players who has been in a Candidates before, and one of just three participants who has ever been rated 2800, Firouzja has the third-best statistical chances to win the event. Still, he finds himself closer to the rest of the field than to the top two of Caruana and Nakamura.

The grandmasters were rather split on Firouzja's chances.

If I had to make a bet with these odds, Firouzja would be my choice for a value bet.

GM Rafael Leitao

Nepomniachtchi has won this tournament twice in a row, his first two times playing in it. Statistically speaking, however, this fact neither increases or decreases his odds of winning a third time in a row, and he is just a fraction less likely than Firouzja to take the tournament.

There was perhaps no greater disagreement between the grandmasters and the percentages than with Nepomniachtchi.

This percentage almost feels disrespectful!

GM Robert Hess

The ranking of the three Indian players in the field has been constantly shuffling in the past few monthsin fact, in the official March rankings, all three of them were rated exactly 2747but as we enter the Candidates, it is Praggnanandhaa who finds himself at the top of the numbers hierarchy.

Howell and Kosteniuk were very high on Praggnanandhaa as well, while Hess and Leitao have all three Indian players about the samea reflection of their bunched-together ratings.

Pragg has great nerves, a very flexible opening repertoire, and is so universal. All key ingredients for a successful Candidates campaign.

GM David Howell

Gukesh is only 17 years old, the youngest player in the tournament. Of the three Indian players, he is the only one who has cracked a 2750 rating so far, becoming the first Indian player in 37 years to surpass GM Viswanathan Anand, but he has lost a few points since then. And that seems to be reflected in his stats.

Not surprising for the youngest player, all four grandmasters were a bit worried about Gukesh's chances, but not for talent reasons.

It's always hard to predict results from youngsters, so I'm just looking forward to seeing him performing in his first Candidates.

GM Alexandra Kosteniuk

Vidit stumbled in March with a 3/9 finish at the Prague Masters, giving him the second-lowest rating in the field as the tournament begins. While bad performances before the Candidates historically don't mean very much, Vidit's statistical odds are not as high as they would have been with a higher rating.

Definitely the most underrated player... he's not behind his two compatriots, with the advantage of being a more mature player.

GM Rafael Leitao

Yes, out of 10,000 simulations, Abasov won the tournament a grand total of seven times. His rating is more than 110 points lower than anyone else in the field, giving him a major uphill battle.

You might expect the GM panel to agree with Abasov's low odds... and they do.

Abasov truthfully has zero chance of winning this event, but will determine who in fact challenges for the world championship.

GM Robert Hess

If you want even more expert opinions, GM Daniel Naroditsky posted his thoughts on Reddit, and even Carlsen himself was interviewed by Howell below:

It is pretty clear that the expectations on Caruana are stratospheric, but he has met such expectations before. If it doesn't happen for him, the numbers may like Nakamura next, but other grandmasters see Nepomniachtchi as bigger threat. Firouzja may be the least predictable player in the field. The Indian players total 18.5% in their chances, but it's almost impossible to say which one of them specifically might surprise.

Who do you think will win the Candidates and why? Let us know in the comments!

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Who Will Win The Candidates Tournament - Chess.com