Mario Gabelli Says Its Time to Invest in Stocks That Will Save the World. These Two Stocks Fit the Bill. – Barron’s
Posted: January 27, 2020 at 5:47 am
In this final segment of this years Barrons Roundtable, our remaining five panelists share and defend 32 promising investments for 2020.
The investment pros spend more than half of their daylong meeting each January proposing stocks, bonds, and funds that they believe will race ahead of the crowd or fall on their faces, and this year was no different. Our other five participants picks appeared last week.
Weighing in below is Mario Gabelli of Gamco Investors.
Mario, lets hear about your 2020 picks. How many picks do you have?
Gabelli: Nine. First, Im back to baseball: Liberty Braves Group (ticker: BATRA). The stock is at $29.70, with 60 million shares and a $1.8 billion market value. The Atlanta Braves finished with a 97-65 record last season, so theyve done well on the field. Secondly, Major League Baseball is examining the minor-league ownership rules, which should increase the value of their A, AA, and AAA teams. The third point is betting, which is going to keep the eyeballs focused on the gamemeaning more advertising and money for the league.
In addition to that, theyve got SunTrust Park [renamed Truist Park], which is doing extremely well. John Malone controls the voting stock, except for the 18% our clients own. He will exit at some point. The one tiny challenge is that they dont have the rights to the television network because they licensed that off.
What could the stock be worth?
Gabelli: I wont sell for less than $42.
Whats your second-favorite sport?
Gabelli: Basketball: Madison Square Garden (MSG). It recently closed at $300 per share, with under 24 million shares and $1 billion in net cash. Theres some financial engineering going on. Instead of spinning off the sports teams, the New York Knicks, the Rangers, and some other assets are staying in a RemainCo, and theyre spinning off all their entertainment businesses via a SpinCo, hopefully this quarter.
Forbes values the Knicks at over $4 billion. And you just had Joe Tsai from Alibaba buy a piece of the Netsand he paid a fairly significant amount of money.
What about the spun-off entertainment businesses?
Gabelli: Live entertainment and live tours are very popular. Madison Square Garden is a leading live-entertainment venue operator. But Im not going to recommend the SpinCo because theyre building the Sphere [performance center] in Las Vegas, which is going to be more expensive than I expected. And theyre duplicating it in London. So I need to see the economics of that more clearly. But you want to buy the RemainCo, which is the sports teams.
On to No. 3, Mario.
Mario Gabelli: Im going to pivot to a defense company: Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings (AJRD). They make liquid-fuel, solid-fuel, air-breathing, and electric-propulsion enginesthe things that make rockets and missiles go up. The Russians, the Chinese, and the U.S. are all developing hypersonic missiles, which will make our existing missile-defense systems look like the Maginot Line. The Pentagon will have a budget this year of $738 billion, up from $716 billion. And the U.S. just created the Space Force.
What are Aerojets numbers?
Gabelli: There are 90 million diluted shares at $48, roughly $500 million of net cash, and some undervalued real estate assets. Revenues are $1.9 billion, with earnings of about $1.75 per share. Theyre down, but thats because certain products were phased out. We think their results can inch up next year. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is their best customer, and thats where hypersonics fit in. But space-launch systems are part of Aerojets expertise, and the key driver there is companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX.
Lets get back to Earth for your next pick.
[Foxs] quarter that ended in December might not be vibrant, but then results should just roar ahead. With all these politicians running for office and gathering money and spending it, this is going to be a tsunami year for TV broadcasters.
Gabelli: The next one is Fox (FOX), at $36 per share [Fox and Barrons parent company, News Corp, have common ownership]. They sold their entertainment assets to Walt Disney (DIS) since we talked about them last year. I went to their first investor conference in May, where they said theyre not going to do anything major. But theyve already done four acquisitions and a half-billion dollars in share buybacks. For example, they bought a majority stake in Credible Labs, which is a financial-technology company. They bought a position in TSG in Canada because of FOX Bet [an online gambling operation]. Theyre also putting money into WWE ; thats wrestling. Live sports and news are part of their DNA.
The quarter that just ended in December might not be vibrant, but then results should just roar ahead. With all these politicians running for office and gathering money and spending it, this is going to be a tsunami year for TV broadcasters. Buy the voting stock [Class B shares]. Youre getting it at a discount to the nonvoting stock, plus you get the vote. They can earn $3.50 per share for the year ending in June 2021.
What about another recent media mergers-and-acquisitions story, ViacomCBS (VIACA)?
Gabelli: That one has been very painful for the past four years. They finally merged on Dec. 4. Again, youve got to buy the voting stock. National AmusementsShari Redstoneowns 42 million of the 52 million shares, which sell at a $3 to $4 premium to the nonvoting shares. The whole company has a $24 billion equity value. Thats a tiny morsel for Apple [AAPL] or Amazon.com (AMZN) in the hunt for content. Their studio, Paramount, has 3,600 movie titles, and they have 140,000 TV episodes in their content library. They have NFL football. They have [CEO] Bob Bakish. Meanwhile, theyre becoming an arms dealer to all of the Peacocks, Hulus, Disney+s, and Netflixes of the world. My dream wish on this one is that Sony Pictures merges with Paramount. Lets create a content juggernaut.
In calendar 2020, we see $6.5 billion of Ebitda. Also, they are selling CBS Manhattan headquartersBlack Rock. Over the next five years, theyre going to generate about $30 billion of Ebitda. Capital expenditure is de minimislike $200 million a year. The result is significant cash flow, so they can spend $14 billion on new content and bolster their Pluto TV and other streaming properties.
Read the picksand pansfrom these panelists
Scott Black: They generate free cash flow, but theres no growth, Mario. Its all financial engineering. I dont see it. The companys impaired; it has been for a long time.
Gabelli: The stock has clearly reflected that.
Black: I agree its undervalued. But its a value trap.
Well leave that up to the market. What are your last picks, Mario?
Gabelli: My theme for the 2020s is saving planet Earth. An idea linked to that is Connecticut-based Avangrid (AGR), which trades at $50. They have a regulated utility business, and their $10 billion rate base is growing. So, well have a tailwind to earnings and a rising dividend. The second part is the renewables business; theyre a major factor in solar and wind. Iberdrola (IBE.Spain), the Spanish utility], owns over 250 million of the 310 million shares outstanding.
My seventh pick, NextEra Energy Partners (NEP), at $52, also represents a significant opportunity in renewables.
Two to go.
Gabelli: The next one makes a product that even my wife likes. Its called Aperol. Aperol spritzes are the big thing now, made by Davide Campari-Milano (CPR.Italy). Theyre selling at about eight euros. Aperol is about 20% of their revenues, Campari is 18%. They also have Wild Turkey, which is what got me interested in the company years ago. And they have extraordinarily competent management.
Finally, Swedish Match (SWMA.Sweden), at around 500 kronor. Its best known for making snus [smokeless, moist powdered tobacco] and (ZYN) nicotine pouches. Its simple. Theyre selling ZYN in more and more locations in the U.S., and growing fast. The only short-term challenge is that the Swedish krona has come down sharply, relative to the dollar, which means their significant revenues in the U.S. benefit. If the krona gets a little stronger, they lose some of that.
Thanks, Mario.
Write to Leslie P. Norton at leslie.norton@barrons.com
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Mario Gabelli Says Its Time to Invest in Stocks That Will Save the World. These Two Stocks Fit the Bill. - Barron's
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