10 Ways to Invest for the Next Decade, According to BofAML – Barron’s
Posted: November 14, 2019 at 2:44 pm
For those looking for the antithesis of tweet-driven investing, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists are offering an answer.
The equity thematic investing team developed a blueprint for what long-term investors can own to take advantage of 10 so-called megatrends, such as peak globalization and demographic trends like peak youth.
In a note to clients this week, the strategists predicted a new paradigm in the coming decade that will disrupt the status quo. Part of that disruption comes from record-low interest rates, making monetary policy less effective. The changing backdrop could also lead to new economic theories, the death of globalization, and an accelerated geopolitical race for technological supremacy. Unprecedented strides in innovation will come as global data knowledge and interaction with connected devices soarin turn challenging governments and creating privacy issues even as it creates economic value.
Here is a snapshot of the 10 megatrends the strategists see over the next decade and how to play them:
Markets have been moving on the latest developmentsor setbacksfor a possible trade deal between the U.S. and China, with the hope that the two countries can form some sort of pact.
But BofAMLs team predicts the unrestricted free movement of goods, capital, and labor will no longer be a guarantee over the next decade. Already, global trade growth this year is up just 2.5%, below global gross domestic product growtha rare event outside of a recession. Bilateral trade battles are replacing multilateral structures. These shifts suggest that economic volatility from trade tensions could become more of the norm.
What to own, according to BofAML: real assets like commodities, farmland, precious metals, and real estate over financial assets, which benefited from three decades of globalization. They also suggest owning aerospace, defense, energy, and wateralong with infrastructureas national security and economic sovereignty dominate policy.
In terms of stocks, the strategists say look to small-cap stocks and cyclical value sectorsrather than tech and health care.
Todays bond market and more than $13 trillion in debt yielding negative rates pose the biggest vulnerability to markets in the 2020s, according to the strategists.
Monetary policy largess of the 2010s induced significant upside in asset prices, but the economic spoils went to holders of capital not workers, the strategists say. The policy response to next recession will seek to correct the excesses of the 2010s that led to widespread wealth inequality and financial engineering. That will likely mean higher interest rates, lower earnings, or both.
What to own: Gold and gold miners, monopolies like utilities that have pricing power, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury. T-bills, real assets, and high-quality bank stocks could also offer a hedge against the bond bubble popping. Meanwhile high-quality companies with pricing powerthat are out of political crosshairscould weather an equity deleveraging. Think defense, waste management, industrial gas, data processing and payments, and global beverages.
The possibility that central bankers are unable to reflate the economy as monetary policy loses its effectiveness is a mounting concern for investors.
What to own: Gold and real assets if the leadership of the U.S. dollar cracks. As the heap of negative-yielding debt grows, the more likely bond proxies in the equity worldhigh-yielding stocks like utilities or dividend payersshould see another move up, according to the strategists.
The middle class continues to swell in emerging markets. Citing research by the Brookings Institution, BofAML says roughly every second five people enter the middle class.
What to own: new middle-class households mean more shoppers for refrigerators, washing machines, and motorcycles, but also for services such as tourism, education, health and entertainment.
The aging boom: The number of grandparents are set to outnumber the worlds children in the 2020s. Overall, the aging population means more saving over spending, which is deflationary instead of inflationary, the strategists write.
Move over millennials, here come Gen Z. They care about: Sustainability, tech-savvy, focused on experiences and the sharing economy, not conspicuous consumption.
Likely losers: bricks-and-mortar retailers.
BofAML sees a nearing inflection point in the fight against climate change and expects the 2020s to be the decade of clean energy solutions and bold actions in a make earth green again strategy.
What to own: clean energy, electric vehicles. Losers: fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics.
Robots may not replace humans soon but half of jobs are at risk of automation by 2035. As more activities can be automated, processes can become much more efficient, but the shift could change global supply chains from when cheap emerging market labor was the big driver of globalization, the strategists write.
What to own: Investments that play into automation, local production, big data, and artificial intelligence, while those tied to global supply chains are among the losers.
BofAML strategists are in the camp that the trade war is going to transition into a tech war in the 2020s as the U.S. and China fight for leadership in technologies ranging from quantum computing, big data, 5G, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, robotics, and cybersecurity.
The strategists expect global defense, tech, and cybersecurity companies to benefit over the next decade in this race. While the U.S. technology sector could be hampered by regulation and hardening sentiment, Chinese companies are pouring more resources into becoming less reliant on the U.S. and other foreign technology suppliers.
What to own: BofAML says look to emerging-market assets, while developed markets could lose out as China becomes more self-reliant.
Asset managers are rushing to get onto the environmental, social, and governance, or ESG, investing bandwagon. BofAML expects $20 trillion of assets in ESG strategies over the next 20 yearsnearly the market value of the S&P 500.
The strategists see strong demand for thematically-driven investing, especially among GenX and GenY, which total 4.4 billion people and represent about $21 trillion of income globally. By 2020, millennials will account for 16% of global private wealth and 87% of millennials believe ESG factors and impact investing are important in their investment process, according to last years BofA U.S. Trust survey.
What to own: ESG strategies, while business-as-usual investing and companies focused solely on maximizing profits could lose out.
The Jetsons come to life. By 2030, BofAML says there will be 500 billion connectable devices, killing privacy. What to own: Shares of companies involved in the Internet of Things, connectivity and smart cities, as well as big brother surveillance technology.
Tourism and nanosatellites are the next frontier for an industry that could be worth about $1 trillion by 2030, according to the strategists.
Winners: aerospace and defense companies. Losers: legacy satellites.
Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com
The rest is here:
10 Ways to Invest for the Next Decade, According to BofAML - Barron's
- SoundCloud Gets Investment From Union Square, Index [Last Updated On: January 9th, 2011] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2011]
- Return On Investment (ROI) Definition | Investopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investing News - Investment Articles - Investing Research [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- InvestmentNews - The Investing News Source for Financial ... [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investment management - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Investment Education & Advice for Investors - Investment U [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2015]
- Forbes - Investing Information and Investing News - Forbes.com [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Fidelity Investments - Retirement, Funds, and Online Trading [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Investment | Define Investment at Dictionary.com [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Investment Definition | Investopedia [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Find what type of investment is right for you - INVESTMENTS [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2015]
- Investopedia - Educating the world about finance [Last Updated On: September 20th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 20th, 2015]
- Investment, Mutual Funds, ETFs & Stocks | Bankrate.com [Last Updated On: September 26th, 2015] [Originally Added On: September 26th, 2015]
- Gold as an investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: October 4th, 2015] [Originally Added On: October 4th, 2015]
- Green Card Through Investment | USCIS [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- What is Investment ? Meaning and Types of Investment [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Host.al - Albanian Domain AL Accredited Registrar [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Alpha Investment Plan - Alpha Bank Albania [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- RealEstate.al - Apartment-Villa-Office For rent or for sale ... [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Attractiveness of foreign investments in Albania [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- INVESTMENT CLIMATE | Embassy of the Republic of Albania in Japan [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Princip.al :: Welcome to Princip.al [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Foreign direct investment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Moats Wealth Mentor for Financial Independence [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment | Nicole Gesmondi Photographer, LLC [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- investment - Thesaurus.com [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- What is Investment? | eHow [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment banking - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Jobs on CareerBuilder.com [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Articles about Investment - timesofindia-economictimes [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Definition - What is Investment? [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investing Basics | Investor.gov [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Best Investments Good Investments in 2015 and Beyond [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment Calculators [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Investment: a key concept in Economics [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- SEC.gov | Investment Companies [Last Updated On: January 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: January 22nd, 2016]
- Careers-in-Investment-Banking.com: Your Guide to ... [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2016]
- Investment Property and Investment Real Estate For Sale [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2016]
- Investment and Sustainable Development [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2016]
- Investment Images - Photos - Pictures - CrystalGraphics [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2016]
- Investment - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2016]
- Types of Investments - MoneySENSE [Last Updated On: February 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 20th, 2016]
- Smart Ways to Invest Your Money and Minimize Risks [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2016]
- Investing in Mining Stocks, Metals and Commodities ... [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2016]
- What is Investment Banking? (with picture) [Last Updated On: February 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: February 22nd, 2016]
- Investments - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2016]
- investment - English-Spanish Dictionary - WordReference.com [Last Updated On: March 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 20th, 2016]
- Investment fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: March 20th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 20th, 2016]
- What Is An Investment Bank - An Intro To Investment Banks [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Investment Property Advisors - Home [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Investment Savings Bank [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- US Investment Report [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Investment House [Last Updated On: May 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 10th, 2016]
- Best investments - 10 steps to investing money | uSwitch [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- investment - The Motley Fool [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- How to Invest Small Amounts of Money Wisely: 12 Steps [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- Investing with us | HSBC UK [Last Updated On: May 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: May 17th, 2016]
- Investment Risks | Consumer Information [Last Updated On: June 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 27th, 2016]
- Invest In Shipping Containers | Invest Containers [Last Updated On: July 1st, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 1st, 2016]
- Investment - Trade - European Commission [Last Updated On: July 10th, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 10th, 2016]
- investment | finance | Britannica.com [Last Updated On: August 15th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 15th, 2016]
- What does investment mean? definition, meaning and ... [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 17th, 2016]
- Investment Options | Investment Plans in India | Online ... [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 17th, 2016]
- Investment Returns [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 17th, 2016]
- The Mental Health Benefits of Exercise: The Exercise ... [Last Updated On: July 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 8th, 2017]
- PayPal co-founder launches firm to raise investment funds for SpaceX, report says - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Bitcoin Investment Vehicle Adopts Open Strategy Ahead of Blockchain Fork - CoinDesk [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- How to Spot a Good Investment in a Changing Neighborhood - Mansion Global [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- SoftBank Vision Fund investments so far - CNBC.com - CNBC [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Vanguard's new chief investment officer has a warning for investors - The Denver Post [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- MARKET MATTERS: When life throws a curveball at your investment timeline - New Haven Register [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Investment prosperity can make investors complacent - The Seattle Times [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Risky business: Keeping an eye on Chinese investment - POLITICO.eu [Last Updated On: July 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: July 30th, 2017]
- Somaliland secures record $442m foreign investment deal - CNN [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- China isn't discouraging overseas investment, only regulating it, Beijing-backed think tanker says - CNBC [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- China issues rules to curb state firms' overseas investment risks - Reuters [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- Unilever's Latest Investment Targets New Route into Homes - Fortune [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]
- Hundreds of jobs, $139 million investment planned in Morgan County by major companies - whnt.com [Last Updated On: August 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: August 2nd, 2017]